You're Not Really That Exceptional

Sadly, neither am I. At least not in the aggregate.

Back when I was teaching college political science and psychology, one of the toughest concepts for my students to grasp was polling. I understood the struggle, because I, too, always thought, “Hey, they didn’t ask me! My views don’t fit neatly into those little check boxes, those or yes/no questions. No way whoever is running this show can really know what I think.”

That is, of course, true, but only in a narrow sense, because, as much as we hate to admit it, we actually all do fit into the big picture snapshot that polls and surveys are designed to reveal. And we fit into categories that are generally accurate. It’s why Facebook scored $6.4 billion in advertising – in the second quarter of 2016! (http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/personal-data-points-that-facebook-uses-to-target-ads-to/article_749693b2-21a5-5f59-91e3-8f2b1a8a4842.html)

In other words, we’re not really that special, or unique. Not in the big picture.

We can (try to) deny it. If we’re honest with ourselves, we deny it every day. I don’t need that flu shot, I won’t get sick. My son won’t get a concussion playing football, only the other kids on the team. I don’t need to wear a seat belt, or helmet, or take any other safety precautions. I don’t have to not only plan for but work toward retirement; I’ll just keep working, because I won’t get old or sick. I won’t get laid off; my job is safe. I’m objective about politics, it’s the other guys who are biased.

Convenient fantasies, all of them. Of course generalizations (stereotypes, if you will) are just that and relying on them to make a judgment about any individual has less chance of success than picking red or black at the roulette wheel. But like it or not, there is truth in those generalizations and the best we can do is play the odds. Constantly hoping for long shots is a sucker’s game and keeps the odds-makers and most competent casino owners in business.

Instead, we continue to be delusional. Most of us think we are above average drivers, a statistical impossibility, which means that many of the rest of you are wrong about that belief (and also means I do not let Carolyn edit my pieces for accuracy). Big pharma counts on the prevailing belief that if a treatment is pricey people believe that they will get better results. Most people claim to be above average negotiators, which may help explain why Donald Trump overpaid for so much of his property in Atlantic City that he had to file bankruptcy (according to {allegedly} objective sources), and why so many of us also think we got a great deal on that car!

Can you be successful without degrees? Of course. We all know people. But the odds say that the better educated you are the more likely it is you will have economic stability. There’s a reason the average high school graduate earns more than dropouts, but less than community college graduates and even less than college graduates. And no matter how you define average, your odds improve with more education. I know better than most (or is that delusion, too?) that one can succeed without those pieces of paper, but defying the odds is cause for celebration, not a life strategy.

Can you ignore the warnings on tobacco products? Of course. My Uncle Orville smoked all his long life (just an example; I don’t have an Uncle Orville, although I did have an Uncle Ellard, but I don’t remember if he smoked or not). Will regular exercise combined with aware diet choices increase the chances of living longer? Of course, although you might be the exception; but I’d suggest you drop those pounds and limit your visits to Hardee’s (for numerous reasons, mostly their lascivious commercials). Long term success is about playing the odds and not thinking you’re somehow so exceptional that you can beat the long ones.

We may not like it, but those actuaries know what they’re talking about, which is why your teenage son pays higher car insurance premiums than your daughter and less than you or your adult children, why smokers die younger, why we work to keep drunks off the roads. It’s all about the odds. There is irony that many of those who did beat the odds in one way or another, who overcame whatever “handicapping conditions” of their childhood or education presented themselves, while seeing themselves as exceptional, are so often impatient with everyone else, the somehow less exceptional, who are unable to follow that same pathway to success.

Selective perception (seeing and hearing what we already believe, not the opposite) is only an attribute of others, not ourselves. It is why Karl Rove refused to believe the polls in 2012, even as results that continued to prove him wrong rolled in. There is no silent majority. If polls say your view is a minority one, then it almost certainly is, despite the fact that almost all your friends and people you know agree with you, and your posts get lots of “likes” on Facebook.

So you want to “blow up the system” or support some kind of revolution? Be careful what you wish for. There will be casualties, there will be collateral damage that results, and the odds are that the well-insulated (read, affluent) have a better chance than you of not being one of them. What makes you think that you will somehow have more power or status in the new order than the old? Before you vote to blow up the system, make sure you truly understand what stake you have in the old one, no matter how corrupt you want to think it is (or may even be). I’m guessing it’s at least a little and likely a lot more than you realize.

You’re not that special. Neither am I.