Reality Check: Believe the Numbers

A recent online exchange that questioned the number of votes won by President-elect Biden in the 2020 election inspires these counterpoints as to why I believe the numbers are essentially accurate. I have little hope of convincing those who are certain that THIS time Trump is telling the truth, but having spent 50+ years in education, tilting at windmills is hardly a new endeavor. I do not expect agreement on all these points. May I respectfully suggest, however, that rejecting ALL of them may say more about your political beliefs than election integrity. This is my reasoning. Even if only one or two resonate, that should be enough to make someone think.

I will limit my thoughts to bullet points, in honor of the departing incumbent. You’re welcome. Some of you know just how difficult that is for me! 

• I didn’t like the outcome, but I believed the vote in 2016. Trump didn’t win the popular vote that year, either. If you believed (or still believe) Trump’s 2016 fact-free claims about the popular vote, the verdict of no fraud verified by his own appointed investigative committee, then why are you wasting your time reading this?

• I walk. A lot. In my suburban, once reliably Republican neighborhood (of Webster Groves), Biden signs outnumbered Trump signs by at least 20:1, not counting “Any Functioning Adult,” “ByeDon,” “Anyone but Trump,” etc., nor all the independent BLM and similar signs, usually indicative not being in the Trump camp. No argument this a focused snapshot, but it does show, if not enthusiasm for Biden, at least the depth of antipathy toward the incumbent in my area. It is reasonable to assume there are many similar enclaves around the nation.

• In 2016 HRC ran the most abysmal, arrogant, entitled presidential campaign in modern history. She didn’t deserve to win. In 2020 Biden ran a better one. Why doesn’t that alone explain the increased votes?

• And Trump ran a worse one; he lost Arizona because he disrespected John McCain. An unforced error.

• Trump never reached out past his base, never offered an olive branch to expand his appeal. He kept hammering (tweeting?) the wedge, deepening the divide. His constant tweets were more unforced errors.

• Most voters, and thus most of the votes, live in cities/suburbs rather than rural/exurban areas. Trump’s unceasing attacks on cities – yet another unforced error.

• There is visual evidence of long lines of people in those urban areas, waiting to vote. That’s more evidence than exists for “truckloads/suitcases of fake ballots,” or “fraudulent voting machines,” or….

• Trump is a whiny, immoral, unlikeable bully. We want to like our president. No one likes a bully. It should come as no surprise that the disaffected voted in greater numbers.

• Many of his supporters, maybe even you, recognize that he is a lightning rod, a deliberately polarizing figure. Why would that not inspire more people than ever to vote? But Trump does get credit for inspiring a record turnout in both his supporters and opponents.

• Don’t the unprecedented public Biden endorsements, defections, and attacks by prominent Republicans and office holders provide a clear enough signal of Trump’s lack of support, even within his own party?

• Trump doesn’t beat just one dead horse, he has a whole stable of them. They’re still dead, though.

• Trump’s approval ratings* have been underwater since he took office. Your approval of him does not change those numbers. Is it so inconceivable that such unpopularity translates into votes for his opponent? (*I actually tracked them for several months because they gave me hope. I have the chart if you’re interested.)

• Of course there can be small scale conspiracies. But large scale conspiracies, like those Trump and his enablers describe, have too many moving parts, require too many secrets, too many people, to succeed without being exposed and collapsing. Unrealistic and absurd. 

• But if it really were possible to cheat on that large a scale, why did the Democrat Party not bother to win at least one of the toss-up Senate races? (Personally, I’d have rather won 4 of those than the presidency, as much as a second Trump term would have made me cringe.)

• Trump’s fraud claims have been rejected across the board, across the aisle, and across the country. Trump appointed judges, Republican office holders, Republican appointees, all have refuted the fraud claims. And now the Trump dominated SCOTUS, at least twice.

• Claiming the other “team” cheated before you even play may make you feel better about losing but doesn’t change the score. And if you truly believe you’re going to win, do you claim cheating in advance?

• Even many of his supporters and 2016 voters recognize his multitude of character flaws. Just because that wasn’t enough to sway them (or you) in 2020 doesn’t mean it wasn’t enough to sway others.

• I don’t know how many supporters he lost by disrespecting them (e.g., “I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue....”) but it seems logical to assume that at least some moved out of the neighborhood (5th Avenue).

• Had Trump even once taken personal responsibility (for anything, ever), admitted he made a mistake (about anything) or was wrong (about anything), he’d be planning his (unmasked) inaugural balls.

• Both parties are represented with poll watchers. There is STILL no objective, verifiable evidence of fraud. That is not to say no “bad” votes were cast, but in terms of risk/reward, the penalty for manipulating even a couple hundred votes (again, no evidence that happened) far outweighs what a cheater might hope to accomplish. Even the close votes were not THAT close.

 • He’s been lying since inauguration, with easily verifiable photographic (e.g, inauguration), audio (denying saying things that were recorded), and first person accounts. He may be a blatant and prolific liar, but he’s bad at it. You’d think all that practice would have helped, but no.

• Oh, and I never believed he colluded with the Russians in 2016. Granted, it’s mostly because he lacks the character traits (discretion, patience, intelligence) and skills needed to collude, but still….

Voting By Mail -- A First Person Experience

While it will come as no surprise that I support vote by mail, this is less an advocacy piece than a recounting of my wife’s and my experience with the process in the August primary election today.

When MO offered vote by mail as COVID roiled the country, we requested ballots for the elections in March, August and November. Carolyn and I are of a certain age, which puts us at risk. While our choice protects us, even more importantly it reduces the risk we could pose to our immune-suppressed daughter and immune-compromised granddaughter. We are grateful to have that choice. Supporting the process was also (a small) part of our motivation.

We returned our August ballots last week. Both ballots were mailed at the post office in the same box on the same day at the same time. I used the QR-code to track the ballots; mine arrived and was registered. Carolyn’s, however, was noted as “being processed by the USPS.” My daughter tipped me off to 1-866-OURVOTE helpline, so I called them this morning, expecting it would be more of a report than solution. However, this (national) organization walked me through the steps we could take to try to make sure Carolyn’s vote would count.

Complicating things, Carolyn’s back picked this time to act up and she wasn’t able to stand in line or probably even walk into the polling place. I went to the polling place and explained the situation in all its complicated glory. The local election officials would get a 5-Star Yelp review if that were a thing.

After explaining the situation to the poll workers through our masks, they called HQ, which tracked down her ballot. Apparently the ballot arrived but missing an important check mark in some box. HQ claimed to have called yesterday and left a message, but I’m skeptical, given that there was no recording in our inbox. In any case, we were offered two options. Go to HQ, claim and cast her ballot, or come to our polling place, claim a lost ballot and vote. To accommodate her (temporary) physical challenge, we opted for “curbside voting,” and her replacement ballot was brought to the car.

So this trial run gives us food for thought. I can only speak to our experience here in Missouri. I am sharing these observations. 

• If you’re going to mail in your ballot, double and triple check that all necessary boxes have been checked (we thought we had). 

• Give yourself time to track your ballot. The USPS is in the process of being defunded; the system and the workers are being set up for failure. 

• Understand you must weigh the competing risks of your votes not being counted and exposure to a potentially fatal disease.

• After all the hoops we had to jump through, we came to the conclusion that any fear of massive voter fraud, at least in MO, is unfounded. The Republican poll worker agreed with that assessment, as we chatted while Carolyn filled out her ballot.

• The (bi-partisan) poll workers we met and worked with were dedicated to ensuring that everyone who wanted to vote was able to do so, despite the difficulties of our times. I mean, “curbside voting,” who’d have thought?

• It’s pretty easy to make a mistake that could cost you your vote.

• There is help available. Again: 1-866-OURVOTE

Final anecdote from the day. As the election officials (one from each party) came out to the car, I explained, again, how the muscle relaxers Carolyn had taken for her back made walking and standing an unsafe activity. This good-natured exchange followed.

The (Republican) poll worker said, “So she’s on drugs?” 

I answered, “I told you she wanted a Democratic ballot.” 

“Of course, thank you.”

Amendment 6: Voter ID

We live in a complex world, an increasingly complex world. That will not change any time soon. Or at least we should hope not, because if life becomes simple, then that means that life as we know it has changed dramatically, probably irreversibly, and all those hallmarks of civilization that we take for granted are no longer available.

Constitutional Amendment 6 on the (Missouri) November ballot will almost surely pass, despite opposition from the non-partisan League of Women voters and a lonely group working against it. Amendment 6 is the Voter Identification one. Seems simple. Ah, but there’s the rub. Simple in a complex world is anything but.

I was probably leaning toward voting for it myself. Getting a photo ID to vote didn’t strike me as such an onerous a task, and if (when) the amendment passes, groups will arise to ease the process. In fact, the Law of Unintended Consequences may kick in, as it always seems to, and those groups may actually end up registering more people because that’s what true believers do. And, ironically, it may create more of the problem than the one it purports to correct: voter identification fraud. Because the cheaters (and there is virtually zero evidence of this type of fraud) will now have a checklist if they want to try to game the system. There will be less oversight, not more of the increased applications that will follow its passage. Remember, most of those espousing this so-called reform also oppose any new government spending.

But the reason I plan to vote against Amendment 6 is because of my mother-in-law. I should point out that she’s my late mother-in-law who lived in Illinois and won’t be voting any time soon. (Conspiracy theorists may insert their snarky if delusional comment here.) But this law would have probably disenfranchised her. You see, she never had a birth certificate. And Amendment 6 requires that as one of the few types of acceptable forms of identification.

We don’t know where she was born, we don’t know who either of her birth parents are. Her “adoptive” (extra-legal) mother just disappeared one day and showed up a few days later with a baby and refused, even on her death bed, to give any information. My MIL surrendered her driver’s license (just in time, says a grateful community) and, as a non-driver lacked that ID, as well. Could she have jumped through the hoops needed to get a voter ID? Of course. Would we have helped her? Of course. But why, after years of voting, paying taxes, being a productive citizen, should we, the state, place this burden on her? To solve a problem (Voter ID fraud) that is virtually non-existent? While it’s a moot point because she died almost 8 years ago, she’s not alone and would not deserve to be disenfranchised. Oh, and as a denizen of Southern Illinois, would likely have voted Republican.