Reality Check: Believe the Numbers

A recent online exchange that questioned the number of votes won by President-elect Biden in the 2020 election inspires these counterpoints as to why I believe the numbers are essentially accurate. I have little hope of convincing those who are certain that THIS time Trump is telling the truth, but having spent 50+ years in education, tilting at windmills is hardly a new endeavor. I do not expect agreement on all these points. May I respectfully suggest, however, that rejecting ALL of them may say more about your political beliefs than election integrity. This is my reasoning. Even if only one or two resonate, that should be enough to make someone think.

I will limit my thoughts to bullet points, in honor of the departing incumbent. You’re welcome. Some of you know just how difficult that is for me! 

• I didn’t like the outcome, but I believed the vote in 2016. Trump didn’t win the popular vote that year, either. If you believed (or still believe) Trump’s 2016 fact-free claims about the popular vote, the verdict of no fraud verified by his own appointed investigative committee, then why are you wasting your time reading this?

• I walk. A lot. In my suburban, once reliably Republican neighborhood (of Webster Groves), Biden signs outnumbered Trump signs by at least 20:1, not counting “Any Functioning Adult,” “ByeDon,” “Anyone but Trump,” etc., nor all the independent BLM and similar signs, usually indicative not being in the Trump camp. No argument this a focused snapshot, but it does show, if not enthusiasm for Biden, at least the depth of antipathy toward the incumbent in my area. It is reasonable to assume there are many similar enclaves around the nation.

• In 2016 HRC ran the most abysmal, arrogant, entitled presidential campaign in modern history. She didn’t deserve to win. In 2020 Biden ran a better one. Why doesn’t that alone explain the increased votes?

• And Trump ran a worse one; he lost Arizona because he disrespected John McCain. An unforced error.

• Trump never reached out past his base, never offered an olive branch to expand his appeal. He kept hammering (tweeting?) the wedge, deepening the divide. His constant tweets were more unforced errors.

• Most voters, and thus most of the votes, live in cities/suburbs rather than rural/exurban areas. Trump’s unceasing attacks on cities – yet another unforced error.

• There is visual evidence of long lines of people in those urban areas, waiting to vote. That’s more evidence than exists for “truckloads/suitcases of fake ballots,” or “fraudulent voting machines,” or….

• Trump is a whiny, immoral, unlikeable bully. We want to like our president. No one likes a bully. It should come as no surprise that the disaffected voted in greater numbers.

• Many of his supporters, maybe even you, recognize that he is a lightning rod, a deliberately polarizing figure. Why would that not inspire more people than ever to vote? But Trump does get credit for inspiring a record turnout in both his supporters and opponents.

• Don’t the unprecedented public Biden endorsements, defections, and attacks by prominent Republicans and office holders provide a clear enough signal of Trump’s lack of support, even within his own party?

• Trump doesn’t beat just one dead horse, he has a whole stable of them. They’re still dead, though.

• Trump’s approval ratings* have been underwater since he took office. Your approval of him does not change those numbers. Is it so inconceivable that such unpopularity translates into votes for his opponent? (*I actually tracked them for several months because they gave me hope. I have the chart if you’re interested.)

• Of course there can be small scale conspiracies. But large scale conspiracies, like those Trump and his enablers describe, have too many moving parts, require too many secrets, too many people, to succeed without being exposed and collapsing. Unrealistic and absurd. 

• But if it really were possible to cheat on that large a scale, why did the Democrat Party not bother to win at least one of the toss-up Senate races? (Personally, I’d have rather won 4 of those than the presidency, as much as a second Trump term would have made me cringe.)

• Trump’s fraud claims have been rejected across the board, across the aisle, and across the country. Trump appointed judges, Republican office holders, Republican appointees, all have refuted the fraud claims. And now the Trump dominated SCOTUS, at least twice.

• Claiming the other “team” cheated before you even play may make you feel better about losing but doesn’t change the score. And if you truly believe you’re going to win, do you claim cheating in advance?

• Even many of his supporters and 2016 voters recognize his multitude of character flaws. Just because that wasn’t enough to sway them (or you) in 2020 doesn’t mean it wasn’t enough to sway others.

• I don’t know how many supporters he lost by disrespecting them (e.g., “I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue....”) but it seems logical to assume that at least some moved out of the neighborhood (5th Avenue).

• Had Trump even once taken personal responsibility (for anything, ever), admitted he made a mistake (about anything) or was wrong (about anything), he’d be planning his (unmasked) inaugural balls.

• Both parties are represented with poll watchers. There is STILL no objective, verifiable evidence of fraud. That is not to say no “bad” votes were cast, but in terms of risk/reward, the penalty for manipulating even a couple hundred votes (again, no evidence that happened) far outweighs what a cheater might hope to accomplish. Even the close votes were not THAT close.

 • He’s been lying since inauguration, with easily verifiable photographic (e.g, inauguration), audio (denying saying things that were recorded), and first person accounts. He may be a blatant and prolific liar, but he’s bad at it. You’d think all that practice would have helped, but no.

• Oh, and I never believed he colluded with the Russians in 2016. Granted, it’s mostly because he lacks the character traits (discretion, patience, intelligence) and skills needed to collude, but still….

No Discounts on Happy Meals

I have a list of rules I’ve developed over my meandering life journey. Rule #1, however, serves as the linchpin: “You don’t get a discount on the Happy Meal just because you’re not.” But it took me a while to reach that milestone marker.

As I’ve been revisiting the “lost letters” from my past, I’ve been forced to reconsider my original assessment that those first years of college (at Hamilton) were spectacularly unsuccessful. In traditional terms, of course, that is completely accurate (earning about one year’s worth of credit for my two years of residence). What I’ve garnered, however, is that I did set (whether unconsciously or subconsciously), and achieve, an important goal. Apparently I was determined to be unhappy and, not surprisingly, found multiple opportunities to focus on and achieve that end.

I’d like to tell you that this was just delayed youthful angst (it’s an understatement to say that I was not particularly mature), but thinking back I also remember, this time as an alleged adult, waking up, in the middle of the night  to write dark, brooding, and (probably) bad poetry. While I still have those documents of despondency, I choose to let them live where they belong, unvisited, in the darkness of a folder.

My quest for unhappiness had familial roots. In this alley between Mothers and Fathers Days, let me state that my parents did the best they could, given the family situations they came from. I don’t think DFS even existed then, and I can’t say for sure if either would have qualified for a visit, even by the standards of today. I think it’s telling, however, that my father once told me, “Happiness is over-rated.” 

I eventually came to realize that I, and I alone, am in charge of my own happiness. Finding that happiness also involved becoming my own, authentic self. That was, and still is to an extent, definitely a process, a journey, helped along by a supportive wife and loving daughter (and her family), plus a big helping of what were often dismissively (with a large dollop of snark) described as “pop-psychology” books. (The common theme of those books? Until you like/accept your (authentic) self, happiness will be elusive, at best.)

While this path to happiness has taken a while, with occasional potholes and roadblocks, I can report that now I can always respond to the ubiquitous greeting, “Have a nice day!” with, “Why not? No extra charge, right?” That usually generates smiles in both directions.

Have a nice day!

Echoes from My Past Reinvigorate

This blog has (obviously) been on hiatus and you may have wondered why (or not). While nothing is really that simple, the simplest answer is that I found the current socio-political situation just too depressing, polarized, and entrenched to invest my increasingly limited energy into writing about it, feeling as though I’d either be preaching to the choir or screaming into a vacuum. Neither seemed worthwhile, plus, most of the time, I concluded that I had nothing of significance to add to my previous offerings.

So what has changed? Why emerge from hibernation now?

I arrived home Wednesday to a package, sent by my last high school girlfriend who had inexplicably saved all the letters I sent her through my first year of college. Inspired by an advice column in her local newspaper, she took the time to find my address and mail them to me (making sure to note that I wasn’t that special, she saved EVERYBODY’s letters!). While I’ve been wading through the 40+ epistles (she was right on target, I certainly wasn’t that special), I realized I wrote A LOT of letters (and, based on references in those missives, to a number of people).

As embarrassing as those letters are (Carolyn, thankfully, has shown zero interest in reading any of them; we long since concluded that my former self would not have been the least bit attractive to her.), what I quickly came to realize is that writing isn’t just something I do (obviously for fun, clearly not for profit), rather something I NEED. Looking back, I recognize that it was also something I did, regularly, throughout my teaching career (former colleagues will remember the union local’s most powerful weapon, TGIF), plus the occasional “Random Thoughts” memo after that newsletter disappeared (and, IMO, the local’s power went into decline).

While I always said that I wrote this blog for myself, that packet of letters from the past (I may have mentioned how embarrassing I find them now!) reminded me of the importance of continuing to write, not for the benefit of any particular audience (although I will not deny I do like having an audience, no matter how small, which may explain, at least to a certain extent, why I have a blog instead of a diary), but for my own mental health and well-being.

So, fair warning. Don’t Get Berndt is (probably) getting a re-boot. Whether it informs, entertains or (even) annoys you, this I do for me.

Fear the Mob

– An Explanation, Not a Defense

I want to share a story. It’s one I’ve shared with numerous students over my career. Whether it makes anyone think differently or not, whether it will even give pause, I don’t know. But maybe it will explain how easily and quickly people can get caught up in a mob, in a moment.

It was the summer of my junior year in high school. I was traveling with some of my classmates on a church!-sponsored youth experience, working with other students from multiple European countries to rehab a castle in Untergruppenbach  Germany. We were, if memory serves (and, sadly, it’s not as good a servant as it used to be), the largest single contingent in the “camp.”

Conditions were, at least from an affluent American kid’s perspective, Spartan, although hardly something out of Oliver!, had it been filmed yet. We slept on cots in a room repurposed as a dormitory. But it was the food that became the bone of contention. Breakfast consisted of a kind of mush or oatmeal, mint tea, and bread. Our morning break was dark bread and more mint tea. Lunch was a repeat of breakfast. Not typical fare for us.

Our alleged leader, a young minister, apparently either took this “abuse” personally or took advantage of our complaining to try weasel his way into our hearts. (I freely admit that this is not an unbiased assessment of him; I didn’t like him, didn’t respect him, although, in my defense, his actions, and not just the one related in this anecdote, on this trip were the primary causes of my negative opinion.) In any case, about 3-4 days (as I recall) into the trip, he stood up at lunch one day, banged his bowl, and said, “We’re not taking this any more. Let’s go!”

It was, at that moment, I officially lost my mind... ...to the mob. Most (at least) of us also stood up, bowls of mush in hand, and, following his lead, stormed out the room, looking for the owner of the castle. Not sure what we were going to do when we found him; there were no chickens about, so “mushing and feathering” would seem to have been out. It didn’t take much stomping randomly through the building for some of us to decide, “Uh, this is stupid and embarrassing;” the mob lost steam and dissipated. We went from sheep to sheepishly returning to finish our gruel. 

That should have been the end of it, but it wasn’t, not for me. In retrospect, it remains one of the most frightening events of my life. I don’t pretend to be particularly modest about my intellectual abilities. But, for those brief minutes, my mind was not mine; I was not in control. I was just another anonymous follower. It is a feeling, one that strikes fear into my heart to this day, that I never want to repeat.

Imagine, now, had the grievance been serious, legitimate (at least in our perception), of long-standing, simmering on low-heat over a period of years. Cooks know it doesn’t take much more heat to turn a simmer into a raging boil, bubbling over onto the stove. If there’s no one there to turn down the heat, but instead add fuel to the fire (e.g., media and agenda-driven “leaders”)....

Think it couldn’t happen to you? Armies have relied on this semi-controlled sublimation of individual will for centuries. It’s the only rational explanation of the irrational act of charging to a certain death. Sports mobs, in and out of stadiums, are another common example. Mass hysteria is well documented. We all like to think we’re exceptional, to believe that we wouldn’t act that way, but there’s too much scientific evidence to the contrary for that to be true. Something to think about before we rush to judgment of others or absolve demagogues of responsibility.

Note: This sat in draft form for over two years, dating back to Ferguson and other events. The more things change....

Shit Holes and Shit Heads

Disclaimer: I generally work to avoid this kind of language in my writing (if we're having a conversation, well, fair warming, that might be a different story and I make no promises), but in the spirit of the current occupant of the White House, "He started it. Nyah, Nyah, Nyah."

I have been fortunate to travel a lot since my retirement, including to some “shit holes,” as well as some places that apparently are more worthy to send us their citizens. Like there’s a lot of Norwegians who would give up their universal health care for our crap shoot system.*

It doesn’t take much, if any — what do call that process of investigating for facts to back up an opinion? Oh, yeah, research — research to compile a list of successful people from the so-called “shit holes” who have enriched our lives, country, and culture. One of the great things about the USA is that we never know when or where those contributors will emerge, (immigrant or not) or what their back story will be. It’s impossible to predict. 

Recent case in point: Two weeks ago a 26-year old soldier raced repeatedly into a burning Bronx apartment building, saving four people before he died in the flames. His name was Pvt. Emmanuel Mensah and he immigrated from Ghana, a country Donald Trump apparently thinks produces very subpar immigrants. (source: neo-conservative Bill Kristol – editor of The Weekly Standard)

That’s the danger of stereotyping and over-generalizing: it is not a reliable predictor of, well, anything for any individual. Pretending some level of superiority based on birthplace (and I’m not even specifically referring to country of origin, here; it could be a municipality or even a neighborhood) is incredibly arrogant, as well as wrong-headed and unrealistic. And probably, in many but not all cases, racist.

 It truly irks me when President Trump and the other drum-beaters for “American Exceptionalism” fail to realize that most people, or at least those with a sense of country, believe that their country, too, is exceptional. Those same, exceptionally loud, voices are also critical of the trend to eliminate winners and losers, the trophies for all attitude. “We can’t all be winners.” That may be true, but in the drive to make this world a better place for all of us and our children, we can’t afford losers. We do, in fact, need to find a way for everyone to, if not be a winner, have a fair chance at winning at some point.

Comparing my country to yours isn’t even a good parlor game, and what rules there may be come from those who want to stack the deck so that their homeland becomes the winner.  (The winner of what, exactly?) National pride can’t only be good when it’s ours. Who is to say that we’re better than anyone else? If we cannot have a sense of national pride without it involving crushing others, then I would suggest such pride will definitely “goeth before the fall.” (Proverbs 16:18; you might make note of a blog post from me that cites both the Bible and a pre-eminent neo-con. Time to start prepping for the apocalypse!)

I’d suggest we’d be better off with an attitude toward our country like most of us have toward golf (or any other solo activity), and working on just being the best that we can, knowing there is always room for improvement, without the need to “beat” some other country or person. In the unlikely event that I could beat you (or anyone) in a golf match, it still wouldn’t mean I was any good.

Being better than the competition doesn’t mean you’re good. Being louder than the other side doesn’t mean you’re right. Bob Dylan long ago (1965) got it right when he said, “Not to climb up any higher but rather drag you down the hole that he’s in.” (Restoring order to the universe: It’s Alright Ma, I’m Only Bleeding) We should be cheering (and helping, when possible) these countries as they work to develop their economies, education, social services, etc., even if not always by the methods we would prefer. Instead, American Exceptionalists seem to want to put a ceiling on others’ ambition so that we can continue to wave our flags and foam fingers and shout, “We’re #1!” to justify any action we take. Let’s at least not be offended or surprised when we get a different finger in return. Your foam finger doesn’t make some other country a “shit hole,” but it kind of does make YOU a shit head.

* Apparently, despite the fact that most young Norwegians speak English and virtually no young Americans speak Norwegian, there is a net migration imbalance TO Norway from the USA; in other words, more Americans move to Norway than vice versa.

The Incomplete Rules o' Life Update

As disappointing as it may be, I still haven’t been invited to present any commencement addresses, even though I’ve been sporadically revisiting my (Incomplete) Rules o’ Life over the past few years in anticipation, trying to keep it up to date, should the occasion arise. Perhaps it’s just as well, though. I’d hate to generate protests or walkouts by the graduates. I’ve also added a couple corollaries. In any case, here is the annotated update (“Rules” with a C in the number are corollaries), followed by the complete “Berndt’s Incomplete Rules o’ Life.” Some rules are obviously more significant than others, and someday I may reorder them in terms of importance. Or, given how long it’s been since I did an update, maybe not. Enjoy it, or not. Better yet, make your own! (see [renumbered] Rule 65)

2-C. Rightness does not excuse rudeness (stolen from Megan-Phelps Roper and her TED talk about leaving the Westborough Baptist Church)

15-C. Don’t be afraid to lose; or fail. If you’ve never failed, you’re either not trying hard enough or enough new things.

See Rule 15 Above. If your primary goal is to avoid failure or loss, you’ll never maximize your results.

47-C. No sane adult would ever repeat adolescence.

(See Rule 47)

54. Unconditional love makes both the giver and receiver stronger.

Loving without reservation is liberating and empowering – and sometimes painful. Do it anyway.

55. Just because it feels personal doesn’t mean that it is. 

Intent is everything, and not everyone shares your agenda, journey, challenges, dreams, values, aspirations, etc., etc. This rule holds true in family relations, interpersonal relations, government relations, international relations. Or you can spend your life angry. This is just one of the reasons I find Donald Trump so dangerous, since everything seems to be personal to him (and worse, he promises to act and react accordingly).

56. You can’t choose your martyrs, but you can choose your heroes.

There will be people who will adopt and even sacrifice for your cause, whether or not you want or need them to. You have no control over that. However, you don’t need to defend or lionize them unless they’re truly worthy.

57. If you're going to post, repost, or create a meme, double check the spelling and grammar.

Of course, this assumes the people you hope to influence will actually recognize errors of that sort, which, now that I think about it, is a not very frequent attribute of those who get enthusiastic about reposted memes. So, in the words of Emily Litella (the late, great Gilda Radner), “Never mind.”

58. With nothing to look forward to, there’s an unfortunate tendency to spend too much time and energy looking backward.

Living in the past is not particularly productive, and often delusional. It may be the most significant pitfall of aging. Revisionist history is not just for textbooks and agenda-driven historians anymore.

59. No one said the high road is the easy one. But it is almost always the right one.

I can’t think of any real exceptions to this. I suppose that, in theory, if taking the high road jeopardizes an innocent’s welfare, you might face a tough decision and need to investigate alternative routes.

60. Loyalty is a two-way street and may require some sacrifice on your part.

If you expect loyalty from your friends, family, employees, employer, colleagues, etc., it’s up to you take the first steps down that avenue, even knowing that you might not be met halfway. If loyalty really matters, it must become a prime value, which can be inconvenient and even require some sacrifice, although never to the point of violating other core values.

Sidebar: I don’t know who is to blame (but, like most things, I’m guessing there’s plenty to go around), but I think our national economy is much the worse off for companies seeing their employees as just another interchangeable part, a human “resource” instead of a human being. Likewise, employees who don’t understand their importance to the bottom line, and the bottom line’s importance to their continued employment, are soiling their own nest.

61. Smart and $1 will get you a Big Gulp. So will dumb and $1.

It’s all about what you do with your gifts. Over the years I taught a lot of gifted kids who never unwrapped their presents. The path of least resistance is also the least likely path to success.

62. Everybody’s job/life is tougher/cushier than yours.

Recognize that it’s your road that you have to travel. Don’t judge someone else’s because their path isn’t yours. Every job has its challenges, and you probably don’t know how tough they are.

63. You can only coast so far. Eventually you run out of downhill and need to work to get up the next one.

Take it from a coaster. If you’re always coasting you won’t be in the kind of shape you need to succeed when life gets harder. That it will get harder is a certainty. That is not, however, inconsistent with getting better.

64. Don’t debate trolls.

Seriously? This requires explanation? A corollary of “Never try to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.” Except trolls just annoy you, because they don’t have feelings (except misplaced superiority) of their own. It is a waste of time, however.

 And, as always, the (revised) original list. Most phrasing, if not the idea itself, is mine, but those knowingly borrowed are in italics.

1  You don’t get a discount on the Happy Meal just because you’re not….

2  Being “right” is over-rated….

            2-C. Rightness does not excuse rudeness (stolen from Megan-Phelps Roper and her TED talk about leaving the Westborough Baptist Church)

3  Love increases in direct proportion to usage.

4  Better to ask forgiveness than permission.

5  Find satisfaction in achieving the best result possible instead of frustration over failing to achieve the best possible result.

6  There’s no “undo key” for life.

7  Don’t worry about what other people think about you, because, in fact, they’re not (thinking about you).

8  Most people are capable of redemption, but only if you allow it.

9  If one sincere apology isn’t enough, forgiveness isn’t really on the agenda (Okay, maybe two).

10  Life is a marathon, not a sprint.

11  Not liking an answer doesn’t make it wrong.

12  Being correct and being wrong are NOT mutually exclusive.

13  If you’re both the host and guest of honor at a Pity Party, don’t expect a large turnout.

14  Although your body offers numerous hints, it’s when your mind stops growing that marks the beginning of the end.

15  You never know the limits of your reach until you fall on your face.

15-C. Don’t be afraid to lose; or fail. If you’ve never failed, you’re either not trying hard enough or enough new things.

16  Try to go where you’re invited, stay away from where you’re not.

17  If you can’t like yourself, what’s the point for anyone else?

18  Be a good audience.

19  Admitting that you are/were wrong is both cathartic and liberating.

20  If you can never be satisfied, don’t be surprised when people stop trying.

21  Wherever you go, there you are.*

22  It’s just so much easier to tell the truth in the first place.

23  Stereotyping victimizes both the typee and typer.

24  Just because you agree with me doesn’t mean I’m right. **

25  If you insist on seeing the glass half-empty (or less), don’t be surprised if someone just drinks the rest.

26  The loudest voice has no more claim to truth than the softest.

27  It’s way easier to fix the flaws in others than deal with your own.

28  You can always find something to complain about, but I’m not sure how that’s helpful to anyone.

29  People will generally live up to or down to your expectations.

30  If you want to make a fresh start, it will require more than a change in location.

31  If you’ve never offended anyone, it’s likely you’ve never said or done anything worth thinking about.

32  If someone really wants your advice or opinion, (s)he’ll ask.

33  Hey, if you’re going to nurse a grudge, at least make it over something life-altering.

34  Pay yourself first.

35  If you expect people to read between the lines, make sure the font is dark and bold – and don’t forget to double space.

36  Whether it’s arson or an accident, you can’t unburn a bridge. You can rebuild it, eventually, but getting a permit from the right person can be problematical.

37  The pain-level of an insult is directly proportional to its truth-level.

38  Unsolicited opinions are like pennies – it’s easy enough to find one lying around – and it’s worth about as much. (See Rule #32)

39  Blaming others for your failure to ask for what you need is a little backwards. (If you don’t A-S-K you don’t G-E-T.)

40  Just because you have the right doesn’t make it right.

41  Make sure your path to the target is clear when tossing a well-aimed dart – you never know who might walk in front of it.

42  Most rules written in crisp, dark black print on starkly white paper may be clear but are also fragile and easily broken. 

43  If what you’re doing to win her (him) isn’t real, the relationship won’t be either.

    44  Before trying to convince someone else that you’re right, ask, and admit the possibility, “What if I’m wrong?”

    45  The potential to do harm is greater if thinking is missing from the picture.

    46  Just because a critic says something is “good” doesn’t mean I have to like it.

    47  Most important youth lessons are painfully learned.

            47-C. No sane adult would ever repeat adolescence.

    48  Live so that people will want to celebrate your life at your funeral.

    49  Next time is often a long time from now….

    50  If you don’t have anything to do, that’s probably pretty much what you’ll actually get done.

    51  Just because someone put you in charge of the restaurant doesn’t mean you should try to tell the cooks how to do their jobs.

    52  Sports without sportsmanship is just war with fewer casualties.

    53 Just because you’re as good at something as you care to be doesn’t mean you’re actually good at it.

54. Unconditional love makes both the giver and receiver stronger.

55  Just because it feels personal doesn’t mean that it is. 

56  You can’t choose your martyrs, but you can choose your heroes.

57  If you're going to post, repost, or create a meme, double check the spelling and grammar.

58  With nothing to look forward to, there’s an unfortunate tendency to spend too much time and energy looking backward.

59  No one said the high road is the easy one. But it is almost always the right one.

60  Loyalty is a two-way street and may require some sacrifice on your part.

61  Smart and $1 will get you a Big Gulp. So will dumb and $1.

62  Everybody’s job/life is tougher/cushier than yours.

63  You can only coast so far. Eventually you run out of downhill and need to work to get up the next one.

64  Don’t debate trolls.

65  You’re welcome to borrow or revise any of these, but you’re better off with your own list; it is, after all, YOUR life.

66  Always leave room for one more….

*Apparently stolen from Confucius. Who knew? I thought I was using something from Buckaroo Banzai Across the Eighth Dimension.

**The converse is also true.